Statement from an epidemiologist. Please share widely.
Becky Ayesh shared this, and medically expert people have assured me it's spot on. The author Jonathan Smith of Yale can be found here.
* * *
Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures.
Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the "literature" of social media.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.
Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn't have to.
This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working.
They are.
They may feel futile.
They aren't.
You will feel discouraged.
You should.
This is normal in chaos. But, this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm.
This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.
This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact.
Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don't.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members.
This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.
Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure in place.
The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.
You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in
the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed.
If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.
This sounds silly, it's not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical.
We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.
Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.
These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does.
I promise you it does.
I promise. I promise. I promise.
You can't cheat it.
People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months.
This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.
My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks.
By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
Fresh Start Initiative leaders plead for County Commission to undertake commonsense approach to future planning around Celery Fields, making use of connectivity and recreational opportunities
Commission Chair Nancy Detert rebuffs group for criticism of board and talks of future lengthy discussion with staff about ‘Quads’ parcels
A graphic in the Fresh Start video shows the location of the Quads. Image courtesy Sarasota County
More than nine months ago, the Sarasota County Commission invited a community group to suggest proposals for how two county-owned parcels near the Celery Fields could be used.
The decision the board made on Nov. 28, 2017 followed an earlier months-long effort by community activists to protect those parcels from industrial development. In a 3-2 vote on Aug. 22, 2017, the majority of the board agreed that the internationally known Celery Fields might have started out as a county stormwater project, but it has become a major tourist draw, thanks to the hundreds of bird species that make it their home or just a stopover during migration.
Commissioners Paul Caragiulo, Nancy Detert and Charles Hines denied petitions submitted by Sarasota business owner James Gabbert to build a construction and yard-waste recycling facility on what is known as the “Southwest Quad” near the Celery Fields. Yet, it was Commissioner Alan Maio — who supported the petitions, along with Commissioner Michael Moran — who suggested on Nov. 28, 2017 that opponents of Gabbert’s proposal have the opportunity to explore the potential of both the Southwest and Southeast Quads in a manner that would be supported by the tens of thousands of residents in the area.
For the 12.7-acre Southeast Quad, they settled on a multi-use pavilion and a buffer/visitor center. As an alternative, they recommended an ecotourist lodge, perhaps with a restaurant.
The commissioners asked them to refine their proposals and present an update later this year.
Graphics show potential uses on the two Quads. Image courtesy Sarasota County
That second presentation came on Sept. 12, following more months of reflection by Fresh Start members — which include representatives of 50 homeowner associations — on what they felt would be appropriate for the two Quads.
“We feel very strongly that the … Quads should be preserved as sort of a breathing area and natural element,” Executive Council member Carlos Correa told the board on Sept. 12.
“What makes you so eager to sell our public lands to industrial users?” Executive Council member Gary Walsh asked the commissioners.
A video the group showed the board noted twice that the county’s Future Land Use maps for the area had not changed in 1983, and those maps indicate industrial uses.
The Fresh Start group, Correa added, had considered the economic, social and educational opportunities “that could be nurtured” in proximity to the Celery Fields.
“We don’t need you to point out what’s going on out in the area or what we ought to be doing,” Chair Nancy Detert responded. “We charged you with visioning, dreaming, coming up with something exciting. … What I’m waiting to hear are ideas. The criticism, we’ve heard before.”
The 18-and-a-half-minute video provided examples of potential connectivity of the nearby residential and commercial areas — some still in the planning stages — to the Celery Fields. The narrator emphasized that more than 32,000 homes already have been approved on approximately 22,000 acres surrounding the Celery Fields.
The narrator talked of the multi-use building hosting workshops on environmental issues and art exhibits, for examples. Additionally, the Sarasota YMCA could use it for youth programs and classes.
The Southwest Quad — Parcel 2 — also could be the scene of rope courses and volleyball games, the narrator said.
At one point, the narrator asked the board to “consider the unusual value offered by the Palmer Boulevard underpass, a precious walkable link” between the Celery Fields and businesses and restaurants on Cattlemen Road and on Palmer Boulevard, west of Interstate 75.
This is the Palmer Boulevard underpass, as shown in the video. Image courtesy Sarasota CountyThis is a depiction of how that underpass could be transformed. Image courtesy Sarasota County
With another slide, the narrator noted the potential of transforming a linear park on the north side of the Celery Fields into a “riverwalk,” a concept county leaders discussed in 2005, the narrator added.
At the very end of the presentation, the Fresh Start Initiative asked the commissioners to approve the following resolution that day: “That the Quads be dedicated to beneficial public uses in perpetuity; that uses for these lands be actively sought and formally approved only after community consultation and careful study of trending markets and beneficial opportunities has been completed to the satisfaction of all who care about the Celery Fields.”
The final slide said, “Keep the public in our public lands.”
“Thank you,” Chair Nancy Detert told the group.
“What we will do with the property will certainly not be decided today.” That would entail an extensive discussion, including staff information about the roads and other infrastructure in the area, she pointed out. “So we have a lot of work left to do …”
About that infrastructure …
This is a rendering of the ‘riverwalk’ proposal. Image courtesy Sarasota County
When Detert asked whether board members had any questions following the video, Commissioner Paul Caragiulo responded that he had a couple, but they probably would be more appropriate for staff.
“The major issue for me in this whole thing, if we’re being real transparent and honest about it,” Caragiulo said, “is that we have standards in place that … will really create a tremendous obstacle” to any future uses of the Quads. The primary obstacle, he added, is the timeline for any improvements on Palmer Boulevard, to facilitate extra capacity for traffic.
When Caragiulo asked about the tentative timeline for an upgrade of Palmer Boulevard, Matt Osterhoudt, director of the county’s Planning and Development Services Department, said he was unable to provide any information. Paula Wiggins, the county’s transportation planning manager, would have that answer, Osterhoudt added.
Caragiulo also talked of concerns about pedestrian safety in the area — an issue that Siesta Key resident Robert Waechter raised during the Open to the Public comment period at the start of the Sept. 12 meeting. Waechter owns industrial property near the Quads.
“This is fundamentally my big problem on this,” Caragiulo added, referring to the public safety issues related to the road network near the Celery Fields.
An aerial map shows the intersection of Apex Road and Palmer Boulevard in Sarasota County. Image from Google Maps
Osterhoudt told Caragiulo staff would be happy to offer any information the board members wanted.
“The purpose today,” Detert said, was for the Fresh Start group to provide more details about how the county could use the Southwest and Southeast Quads. “It was a beautiful presentation … a little short on details now and a little long on criticism, frankly. We already know the roads are overcrowded,” Detert added.
The Fresh Start group’s presentation followed a discussion of the results of the county’s 2018 Citizen Opinion Survey, which noted development and traffic congestion as major concerns of respondents. (See the related article in this issue.)
After the presentation
On Sept. 13, Tom Matrullo, a member of the Fresh Start Executive Council, provided The Sarasota News Leader a copy of comments he had written after reflecting on the previous day’s efforts.
Following the group’s initial presentation in April, he wrote — which members hoped would be the start of a collaborative dialogue — the council worked on additional market and demographic data and submitted that material to the county in July.
After a month, he said, the members had received no response from a staff member or a commissioner.
When they asked whether a response would be forthcoming, he continued, they were told that staff had scheduled their follow-up with the board as a discussion item on the Sept. 12 agenda. “Our attempt at dialog had apparently hit a wall,” he added.
As a result, Matrullo wrote, “We decided to address the larger question of planning, offering an analysis of this area as an example of why it’s necessary to plan proactively and carefully, rather than piecemeal and at random.
The Southwest Quad was the site of the proposed TST Ventures recycling facility. Image courtesy Sarasota County
Although the commissioners seemed displeased with the Sept. 12 presentation, he added — including references it made to the August 2017 public hearing on the construction recycling facility proposal — it offered “a holistic view, attempting to model the sort of approach needed to make the leap to a new view of East County.”
He concluded his comments with the following, “We believe that this conflict — between West and East Sarasota; between old industry and new opportunities near the Celery Fields, with eco-tourism blossoming and new communities running into tens of thousands of homesites — deserves nothing less than a deliberate honest dialog between the County and its citizens. We await the Board’s thinking on all these matters.”
Key points for the council
A graphic shows a variety of activities, making use of the potential connectivity from Benderson Park to the Celery Fields. Image courtesy Sarasota County
Before the Fresh Start group began its video on Sept. 12, Glenna Blomquist, another Executive Council member, told the commissioners, “We have so many wonderful visuals to show you today. This has really been a labor of love for us.”
The video narrator noted Fresh Start’s top four proposals for the two Quads, reprising ideas the group put forth in April:
A multi-use community facility, trails and a pavilion.
A birding lodge and restaurant.
A sports complex with a food truck area.
Boulevard-style shops, “fooderies” and affordable apartments.
Mote Marine leaders already are working with county staff on their proposal for a $130-million aquarium and science education center at Nathan Benderson Park, the narrator said. “Mote estimates its new aquarium will be visible to 43 million drivers a year [on Interstate 75],” the narrator continued.
At the next exit, “they’ll see the Celery Fields and the Quads, too. … Do we really want to allow industrial traffic to dominate this significant gateway?” the narrator asked.
The video also showed graphics depicting the route of Lakewood Ranch Boulevard and the area of the Fruitville Initiative, where development is underway. The video emphasized the connectivity from Benderson Park to the Celery Fields.
A graphic shows the location of Lakewood Ranch Boulevard, the Celery Fields, the area of the Fruitville Initiative and locations of housing developments, with the numbers of homes indicated. Image courtesy Sarasota County
Yet, the narrator pointed out, “Developer proposals are lining up rapidly and at random” for the eastern part of the county. Fresh Start is offering “commonsense recommendations” as alternatives, the narrator said.
The video included a quite from Peter Drucker, who called himself a “social ecologist”: “The greatest danger in turbulent times is not the turbulence, but to act with yesterday’s logic.”
On August 23, 2017 the Sarasota County Commission voted to deny the siting of a Construction / Demolition Waste Processing Facility at Apex Rd. and Palmer Blvd. Three voted to deny the application, two voted in favor. The two Commissioners who voted in favor of the dump were Commissioner Moran (the Celery Fields sit in his very own District 1) and Commissioner Maio.
Thousands of you signed petitions, came to the rallies, emailed, phoned or sent mail in opposition to the proposed sales of the public owned lands that are known as "The Quads" adjacent to the Celery Fields. Your dedication of time and sharing information about what was occurring in real time helped form an effort that successfully defeated the county's poorly conceived plans at every juncture!
This was a non-partisan effort that was successful because we all recognized the value and importance of the Celery Fields and what this place means to the people of Sarasota, its visitors and Mother Earth. We also recognized that introduction of a facility like this would ruin the neighborhoods adjacent to the Celery Fields, a topic I had no knowledge of when I went to TST's neighborhood workshop on January 30.
Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, however, I must point out that both the Sarasota Chamber of Commerce and Visit Sarasota (who claim to recognize the dollar value of tourism) never made a statement; nor did a single "science" organization. It is a sad reflection on our community when local institutions who are indebted to the tourism industry remain silent.
All of you, however, you did speak out. I have made more friends through this exercise and we all did this together! We can reach "across the aisle" as they say in D.C. to make differences locally when it comes to environmental stewardship.
Please email me if you are interested in running for County Commissioner, I'm all ears. I don't care about your party affiliation, we all breathe the same air and drink the same water. I want to know how you will protect your neighborhoods and Sarasota county from further reckless planning such as this crazy adventure we've been through known as "Save Our Celery Fields." And if you aren't interested in running for office, please consider choosing just one local subject in your community that is near and dear to you and protect it like it's part of your family.
To the Celery Moon and Back, with the utmost gratitude and respect, THANK YOU!
A THANK YOU TO THE COMMISSIONERS WHO VOTED TO DENY THE DUMP AND TO ASK THEM TO PLEASE REVISIT THE LAND USE DESIGNATION APPLIED TO THE QUAD PROPERTIES AND HAVE THESE PROPERTIES RECOGNIZED AS PART OF THE CELERY FIELDS.
