Showing posts with label population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label population. Show all posts

Friday, April 12, 2019

Sarasota Administrator to look at redistricting ahead of 2020 election

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Courtesy of the Sarasota News Leader

Before County Commission decides whether to pursue redistricting prior to having 2020 Census results available, board seeks considerable research


Commissioner Nancy Detert. File photo
Before the Sarasota County Commission potentially launches an initiative to redraw its district boundaries, board members this week asked the Office of the County Attorney and County Administrator Jonathan Lewis to provide the answers to a number of questions.
Among the issues raised by Commissioner Nancy Detert’s proposal for redistricting, commissioners want to know what data legally could be used for such a process. Commissioner Christian Ziegler noted, for example, that he believed the American Community Survey undertaken by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2015 provides an estimate of the county’s population.
Additionally, Ziegler said during the board’s April 9 meeting, the commissioners will need to know the timeline they would have to follow with redistricting to enable Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Ron Turner and his staff to comply with state regulations in preparing for the 2020 elections.
The commissioners, by consensus, made the staff research a formal assignment. Lewis said he expected to have the information ready in May.
The impetus for the discussion, as Detert noted in late February, is the November 2018 passage of a Sarasota County Charter amendment implementing a Single-Member District process. That calls for a voter to cast a ballot in the primary and general election just for a commission candidate in the district within which the voter and the candidate live. Previously, every registered county voter has been able to cast a ballot for a candidate in each commission contest in a general election.
Detert said she had reviewed figures for the five districts drawn and approved by the County Commission in 2012, after the 2010 Census. She told her colleagues on April 9 that she found the districts “are totally out of balance.” Detert added, “It didn’t make any difference before, ’cause you just had to live in your district …”
“We have the right to change our own boundaries,” Detert pointed out. “It’s our right and responsibility. We don’t have to wait for the next Census.”
She fears, she said, that if the board does not undertake redistricting prior to the November 2020 General Election, losers in County Commission races could bring suit, contending that the districts had population imbalances.
These are the results of the Nov. 6, 2018 vote on the Single-Member Districts Charter amendment. Image courtesy Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Office
She had spoken with Supervisor of Elections Turner, Detert added. “He’s totally willing to be as cooperative as he possibly can.” In fact, she noted, he had offered to make one of his staff available to assist the board in redrawing district lines.
He also told her, Detert said, that the redistricting would not cause a problem for his staff in terms of precincts, because the Supervisor of Elections (SOE) Office adjusts precincts “all the time.”
Detert further proposed that the commissioners “make this the most open, transparent and, frankly, televised exercise that the county’s ever been through.”
Software is available to help the board members undertake the modification of the district boundaries themselves, she noted.
Further, by ensuring public involvement in the process, and openness of the meetings, she continued, the effort could prove to be an educational one for county residents. “I think that people’s civics have gotten a little fuzzy over the past years. … People don’t understand that government has some rules … and timelines.”
Additionally, Detert said, “I think we all need to work on restoring the average person’s faith in their own government.
Detert asked County Attorney Frederick “Rick” Elbrecht to read the appropriate section of the Florida Constitution that covers local government redistricting.
Elbrecht referenced Florida Statute 124.01, which says, “The board of county commissioners shall from time to time, fix the boundaries of the [board’s] districts so as to keep them as nearly equal in proportion to population as possible …”
This is Section 124.01 of the Florida Statutes. Image courtesy Florida Legislatue
Additionally, Elbrecht said, the Sarasota County Charter calls for the redistricting process to include a public hearing, after proper notice and copies of the proposed district maps have been made available for people to review. The commission has “a deal of discretion” in the process, he added, “as long as it’s done reasonably and in a non-discriminatory manner.”
Commissioners’ concerns aired
Ziegler was the first commissioner to respond with questions, though he said, “I like the idea of being fully transparent and engaging the public …”
When Ziegler asked Detert what data she had relied on to determine the districts are out of balance, she replied that she had asked the Supervisor of Elections Office for the voter registration figures for the districts. However, she said she believed those numbers also reflect the population of each district.
In response to a request from The Sarasota News Leader following the April 9 discussion, Rachel Denton, communications and voter outreach manager for the Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Office, provided the following current figures for each County Commission district. The numbers include voters whose addresses are withheld for confidential reasons, she said, as well as those whose addresses are a matter of public record:
  • County Commission District 1: 56,198.
  • County Commission District 2: 60,695.
  • County Commission District 3: 64,574.
  • County Commission District 4: 63,295.
  • County Commission District 5: 73,007.
These are the County Commission districts with population figures current as of April 2011. Image courtesy Sarasota County
A graphic shows the current County Commission districts. Image courtesy Sarasota County government
During the discussion, Detert referenced population figures Lewis had provided for a recent community meeting, illustrating the growth of the city of North Port. When she asked Lewis about those, he explained that they were provided by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). However, he added, the BEBR numbers are not sufficiently detailed to help staff determine district population counts.
A document the BEBR released in April 2018 estimated the Sarasota County population at 417,442, with a projection that it could climb as high as 447,600 by 2020 — or even drop to 413,200.
After Ziegler suggested on April 9 that the potential might exist of using the 2015 Census Bureau information, Chair Charles Hines noted that a lot of areas of the county have grown considerably since then. “I think we need a lot more research …”
County Attorney Elbrecht pointed out that the state statute calls for use of population numbers, not voter registration figures.
Ziegler also asked how long the redistricting process would take.
Referencing the state law, Elbrecht explained that the new boundaries would have to be in place before the end of this year. The statute says, “[T]hat changes made in the boundaries of county commissioner districts pursuant to this section shall be made only in odd-numbered years.”
Chair Hines asked how long a person would have to reside in a district before the person legally could seek a County Commission seat.
Chair Charles Hines. File photo
After reviewing the County Charter, Elbrecht said that Section 6.7 requires an individual to have been a resident of the district six months before qualifying to run for the County Commission district seat.
“There’s no guarantee that we have to work around [a commissioner’s] house,” Detert said.
Ziegler emphasized that the board members were not trying to contravene the will of the voters who approved the Single-Member District Charter amendment in November 2018. What the commission is trying to do, he said, is “fill] in those gaps” that were not detailed in the amendment language. “We’re in kind of an awkward limbo, if you will. … This is basically an effort to clearlylay out what the ground rules are and how this is going to work …”
“Well put,” Hines replied.
When Detert proposed a motion calling for redrawing the district maps, Ziegler asked, “Are we ready to make that statement today?”
Hines agreed with Ziegler again. “The assumption is the [population] numbers are out of whack,” Hines said. However, he continued, that determination needs to be made before the commission embarks on redistricting.
“It seems it would be hard to go too much further,” County Administrator Lewis added, without knowing the legal precedents regarding data that could be used for redistricting between the decennial Census counts and the timeline that would have to be followed.
“I think you got enough to get started,” Hines told Lewis.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

A Tale of Two Cities

[eds. note: Thanks to Bill Z. for sharing and pairing these growth pieces - are the two cities at two different points of the same growth cycle?]

SARASOTA:

Packing downtown with more people

A roundabout in downtown Sarasota

By Zach Murdock


SARASOTA - It's no surprise immense growth is coming to downtown Sarasota, but the comprehensive picture of new hotel and residential development entails staggering increases headed to the heart of the city in coming years.

City economic and planning leaders detailed planned development for the Downtown Sarasota Condo Association on Tuesday night, amid several questions from downtown residents about just how much growth the city can stomach.

For starters, hotel projects under construction or approved by the city will add 1,000 more rooms to the nearly 2,000 already in the downtown area, said Virginia Haley, president of Visit Sarasota County.

That will mean the city must generate about 125,000 additional visitors each year to sustain its current occupancy levels, she estimates.

"Before anybody complains about traffic, let me share with you that my hotel occupancy on weekends in July is the same as it is in March," Haley said. "But I don't have a lot of traffic complaints in July, because our seasonal residents aren't here."

But the number of residential units, either rentals or condominiums, will increase by even more, said Norm Gollub, downtown economic development coordinator for the Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce.

About 6,500 residents live in about 4,100 downtown apartments and condos now, he said. More than a dozen additional projects on the way will add another roughly 3,200 residential units to the area, possibly bringing as many as 5,700 new residents downtown, he estimated.

“Much of this is the result of pent-up demand from the recession," Gollub said. "I don't honestly know how much. Once some of these projects are complete, market demand will drive the other projects, but we'll see.”

A U.S. Census Bureau study released last week revealed the Sarasota metropolitan area is the 11th-fastest growing metro area in the country, with Sarasota and Manatee counties adding more than 20,000 people between mid-2014 and 2015.

Last year, the city of Sarasota processed a record number of building permits — about 8,400 permits with a total construction value of about $350 million, said Gretchen Schneider, the city's general manager of planning and development. Many of those are single-family home renovations that owners are now able to tackle as the economy rebounds, and the city is already on track to break that record number of permits again this year, she said.

Despite the surge, Sarasota is only just now approaching its pre-downturn population of about 55,000 residents.

"We're still not back to where we were in '07," Schneider said. "Yes, it's increasing, but it's not going to go gangbusters."

All that growth has caused its share of issue and consternation among local residents, who most often gripe about traffic congestion and the changing skyline. But the city and Sarasota County are working through those issues, with plans to add more than a dozen roundabouts throughout downtown to eliminate lengthy traffic signals and re-instituting suspended impact fees to try to fund improvements and slow the rate of growth.

"Sarasota is becoming an urbanized community with the rules put in place 20 years ago that allowed this," Gollub said. "What's being done now is the struggle of keeping the community vibrant and alive, not overwhelming. ... It's not the Sarasota of our youth, but with our help, our guidance and our input, we can make it the Sarasota that's sustainable."

=========================

Another Condo Bust Looms in Miami


Developers, seeing sharp drop in sales, inventory surge, take steps to avoid a ‘bloodbath’

Condo developers are now cutting back on projects as sales slow. 

PHOTO: CHARLES OMMANNEY/THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES

By
LAURA KUSISTO
March 29, 2016 11:43 a.m. ET
68 COMMENTS

Miami is facing a condo bust—again.

Developers have started canceling projects, slashing prices and offering incentives such as private-jet access to spur sales, an ominous echo of the housing crash that pounded South Florida especially hard.

Easy financing and rising prices prompted developers to build about 21,000 condos in the downtown Miami area from 2004 to 2008. Many of those units sat empty for years.

Developers say this time they have insulated themselves by requiring buyers to put down 50% deposits by the time buildings break ground and by canceling projects instead of moving forward as the market slows.

THE PROPERTY REPORT


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Still, it may not be easy for some to sidestep the damage. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the number of Miami Beach condo transactions declined nearly 20% from a year earlier, while inventory jumped by nearly a third, according to a report from appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. The median sales price slipped 6.6%, according to the report.

“The condo market has peaked,” said Neisen Kasdin, a real-estate development lawyer at Akerman LLP in Miami. “Sales velocity has slowed down considerably.”

Many of the forces buffeting the Miami market are also hitting luxury markets in New York, Southern California, Australia and London. A strong U.S. dollar and weakening local currencies, dropping oil prices and global economic turbulence have crimped the buying power of foreign investors.

At the same time, stock-market turbulence has made wealthy locals hesitant to undertake big purchases. Luxury-home prices in 10 global cities analyzed by broker Knight Frank LLP are expected to increase by 1.7% this year, down from 3% growth in 2015.

Carlos Rosso, president of condominium development at Related Group, Miami’s largest condo developer, said he sells about 20 units a week in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, versus about 100 a week last year. In response, the company priced its new Auberge development, a 60-story project in downtown Miami, at $600 a square foot, compared with the $850 a square foot it might have asked a couple of years ago.

If Related and its partners hadn’t decided to lower prices, they probably would have had to wait until the next cycle to start construction, Mr. Rosso said. The project launched two months ago and Related has sold about 70 units out of 350 so far.

“It’s a marathon and it’s not a 100-meter chase,” he said. “This is the part of the marathon where we are running a little bit slower.”

Other Miami developers have put on hold or canceled more than half a dozen projects planned earlier in the cycle, from the Ion East Edgewater, a 35-story tower planned by a local Florida development firm, to Krystal Tower, a downtown tower planned by a Brazilian developer, according to consulting firm Integra Realty Resources Miami. Overall, the pipeline of units in active projects in Miami has shriveled by 42%, according to a report released a month ago by Integra.

At the Aurora, a new 61-unit building off the Miami waterfront, the developer is offering buyers a free membership to JetSmarter, a service that allows members to use shared private jets for free.

Tim Lobanov, managing director of Verzasca Group, which is developing the building, said the perk has a retail value of about $12,000 and is part of the project’s pitch to appeal to New Yorkers. JetSmarter offers flights several times a week from New York to southern Florida.

The south Florida condo market is especially vulnerable to swings in the global economy because developers rely heavily on foreign buying, particularly South Americans, Russians, Europeans and Canadians.

Foreign investors have pulled back as the value of their currencies has dropped versus the dollar. Brazilians, for example, have seen the value of their currency against the dollar slip nearly 42% since 2014, while Argentines have seen their purchasing power in the U.S. decline more than 40%, according to Integra Realty Resources.

Miami developers said they are seeing increased demand from New Yorkers and Chinese buyers looking to buy second homes, but that is unlikely to replace the sharp drop in demand from South Americans.

“The depth of the Chinese market, or the European or Canadian market, is not enough to make up for the South American buyer,” said Anthony Graziano, senior managing director at Integra.

Construction in downtown Miami in November. As the condo market slows, developers are canceling projects and requiring bigger deposits when buildings break ground. PHOTO: JOE SKIPPER/REUTERS

‘I don’t see this as the bloodbath that we had last go around at all.’—Gil Dezer

While people across the industry acknowledge the market is slowing, they say low debt levels and a slowdown in new projects will prevent the massive oversupply they saw during the last bust.

“I don’t see this as the bloodbath that we had last go around at all,” said Gil Dezer, president of Dezer Development, builder of high-end Miami condos such as the Residences by Armani Casa, which has seen sales volume plunge to six a month from 20.

Overall, about 1,200 condo units in Miami were delivered last year, down from the peak of 10,000 units in 2008, according to Integra. But with more than 7,300 units under construction, inventory is expected to increase.

Most Miami developers have protected themselves by taking a page from the South American markets. Many now require buyers to pay a 50% deposit on the total cost of their units by the time the project breaks ground. Developers don’t break ground until the project is 80% sold, which means the deposits are enough to cover a significant portion of the construction costs. During the last cycle, by contrast, developers required only 20% deposits and allowed buyers to flip their units while they were still in contract.

Related and a few other developers have since loosened their deposit requirements to 30% from 50% to spur more deals. Mr. Rosso said Related does that only when it already has secured a construction loan and doesn’t need the additional deposits to cover building costs because the building is 80% sold.

Still, Mr. Rosso said the company doesn’t anticipate breaking ground on many new projects in Miami in the next couple of years and instead will be focusing on projects in places like Argentina and Mexico.

“A big part of the cycle is understanding when it’s time to launch new jobs and when it’s time to sell what you have,” he said.

Write to Laura Kusisto at laura.kusisto@wsj.com

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Population explosion for Sarasota and Manatee

Planners bracing for influx of residents


Some 40,000 international tourists, a new mall and 5,000 more homes are in the pipeline for the Interstate 75- University Parkway area, yet there is no immediate plan for roadwork to improve the already burdened interchange. STAFF PHOTO / THOMAS BENDER
Published: Monday, December 15, 2014 at 3:07 p.m.
Last Modified: Monday, December 15, 2014 at 3:07 p.m.
MANATEE COUNTY - The population of Sarasota County could grow by 72 percent and Manatee County's could grow by 67 percent over a 40-year span, according to research presented Monday to a regional transportation panel.


Facts

MORE PEOPLE AND JOBS

On Monday, a Sarasota-Manatee transportation planning board compared 2010 census data with population and work force projections for 2040.

For Manatee County, including all of Longboat Key, the numbers cited are:
2010 population — 318,500
2040 population — 469,100
Increase — 150,000
Growth rate — 2 percent
2010 employment — 153,000
2040 employment — 229,600
Increase in jobs — 76,600
Job growth rate — 3 percent

For Sarasota County, excluding all of Longboat Key, the numbers cited are:
2010 population — 373,700
2040 population — 518,100
Increase — 144,400
Growth rate — 2 percent
2010 employment — 213,000
2040 employment 267,900
Increase in jobs — 54,900
Job growth rate — 1 percent
SOURCE: Sarasota Manatee Metropolitan Planning Organization